CryptoQuant data shows that the Binance estimated leverage ratio for XRP, the token tied to Ripple, fell 26.2% in less than a month, from about 0.229 in September to 0.169 this week, as traders closed borrowed bets after October’s liquidation wave. The froth is gone. What’s left is a smaller, one-sided crowd.

XRP is up 4.5% in 24 hours to $1.35, with $1.68 billion traded, and Ripple used the same day to tell the SEC to finish the rules it says would have spared it a years-long court fight.

So is the XRP Ripple market healthier now, or just quieter?

XRP Ripple Leverage: What Does the Binance Drop Mean?

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Fewer borrowed bets. The XRP leverage ratio CryptoQuant tracks divides open interest, the value of all open futures positions, by the XRP Binance holds in reserve, so a falling ratio means traders are using less borrowed money against the coins on the exchange.

“The decline may reflect a reduction in leveraged positioning, potentially mitigating the risks associated with liquidations,” CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain wrote in the quicktake.

The money left with it. CryptoQuant data puts Binance’s XRP open interest at $453 million on October 17, down from $538.1 million on October 4. The sharpest leg came on October 7 and 8, when XRP slid from $1.52 to as low as $1.32 on Binance and long positions were forced shut.

For context, Arab Chain flagged the ratio at 0.213 on August 26, its highest in more than seven months, days after XRP topped at $1.70. Leverage kept building into late September, when the ratio reached about 0.23, and XRP has drifted lower ever since.

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Are XRP Traders Done Betting on a Bounce?

XRP Ripple

No, and that is the catch. The OKX data tells the same story on size and the opposite one on mood. OKX’s public trading data shows XRP futures open interest fell 32%, from $150.4 million on September 22 to $102.6 million on October 16. Over the same weeks, the number of accounts holding longs for every account holding shorts doubled, from 1.97 to a high of 4.05 on October 17.

Here is how it stacks up on OKX:

  • Open interest: $150.4 million on September 22, $102.6 million on October 16, $108.9 million on October 20.
  • Long-to-short account ratio: 1.97 on September 22, 4.05 on October 17, 3.45 on October 20.
  • Funding rate: briefly negative on October 9, 15 and 18, back to a neutral 0.01% per eight hours today.

In other words, the big leveraged money seems to have left, while a growing crowd of smaller accounts bought the dip with leverage of their own. A ratio near 3.5 to 1 means the crowd is still pointing one way, and crowded longs are exactly what a sharp drop goes after.

Funding tells you who pays. When it dipped below zero in mid-October, shorts were paying longs to stay open, a sign sellers were briefly in charge. Today’s 0.01% is the default rate, so nobody is overpaying for a side yet.

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Ripple’s Message to the SEC: The Token Isn’t the Security

What is XRP’s message to the SEC? Essentially, to finish the job. In the newest Ripple SEC filing, the company sent a comment letter on Tuesday backing the SEC’s proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, and chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty summed it up on X.

“The investment contract is the security, not the token,” he wrote. The rule would treat a token as tied to a security only while the issuer’s promises to buyers last, and Ripple wants that judged on what the issuer actually said, with no loose “decentralization” test.

XRP holders know what the alternative costs. Ripple’s letter says XRP lost about 70% within days of the SEC’s December 2020 lawsuit, around $15 billion in value, as U.S. exchanges delisted it. When a judge ruled in July 2023 that XRP itself wasn’t a security, its market cap jumped about $21 billion and Coinbase and Kraken relisted it the same day. Getting there cost Ripple more than $150 million in legal fees.

The SEC put the proposal in the Federal Register on August 21. Final rules would give exchanges a written test to list against, instead of waiting for a lawsuit to settle it.

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The post XRP Traders Cut Binance Leverage by a Quarter in Under a Month, and the Ones Left Are Leaning Long appeared first on 99Bitcoins.





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